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蘋果和谷歌運勢大逆轉(zhuǎn)

蘋果和谷歌運勢大逆轉(zhuǎn)

Kevin Kelleher 2013-03-12
去年7月,蘋果和谷歌的股價都在600美元左右。但當(dāng)時iPhone5面世在即,人們認(rèn)為蘋果股價漲到1000美元是早晚的事,而谷歌的股價已經(jīng)停滯了幾年。如今,蘋果股價已經(jīng)降到了420多美元,而谷歌卻飆升到800元以上。一年間,這對老對頭的走勢發(fā)生了大逆轉(zhuǎn)。但誰也說不好這次換位能持續(xù)多久。

????2012年7月份,美國總統(tǒng)選舉步入高潮,倫敦奧運會即將開幕,而大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為蘋果(Apple)股價漲到1,000美元只是一個時間問題。

????與此同時,谷歌(Google)股票可謂“虛度光陰”。在2009年股價翻倍之后,谷歌股票在隨后三年半的時間里一直徘徊在600美元上下。去年7月份,蘋果股價也處于600美元左右,但iPhone 5即將推出,而喬布斯締造的蘋果公司似乎正一帆風(fēng)順。

????哦,自那以后,情勢發(fā)生了多大的變化啊。 自去年7月中旬以來,蘋果股價已經(jīng)下跌了29%。而谷歌呢?它的股價上漲了46%,突破了800美元大關(guān),而蘋果卻趴在424美元附近。蘋果正在與投資者就是否增加派發(fā)股息的問題進(jìn)行爭斗,而谷歌股票則在歡快上漲。

????近幾個月以來,人們對于蘋果股價下跌展開了許多討論,而相對而言,對于谷歌相應(yīng)的上漲卻較少討論。但兩者之間的這個差異可歸結(jié)為這點:蘋果創(chuàng)造了硅谷歷史上科技公司業(yè)績增長最輝煌的一個階段,但現(xiàn)在人們越來越傾向于認(rèn)為,這個階段已經(jīng)結(jié)束,而谷歌可能正處于這樣一個階段的開始。

????這就是谷歌在連續(xù)兩個季度獲得不俗業(yè)績——而且有更多跡象表明該公司正在制定長期發(fā)展計劃——之后給人留下的新形象?!罢雇磥硪欢甑南M科技領(lǐng)域,我們認(rèn)為谷歌無疑是占據(jù)最佳優(yōu)勢的公司,”投資銀行派杰(Piper Jaffray)頗具影響力的科技產(chǎn)業(yè)分析師吉恩?蒙斯特寫道。

????蒙斯特話中指的并不是搜索或其他廣告業(yè)務(wù)(這部分業(yè)務(wù)在谷歌的營收中仍占據(jù)87%的份額),而是指那些還沒有投入市場的新開發(fā)項目,比如谷歌眼鏡和無人駕駛汽車——他稱后者為谷歌“未來十年最大的機遇之一?!?/p>

????與此相比,蘋果看到自己在智能手機和平板電腦領(lǐng)域的市場份額正在隨著時間的推移而逐漸縮水,同時那些低利潤、低成本、采用安卓移動操作系統(tǒng)的競爭對手則提高了產(chǎn)品的銷量,而且蘋果也在推出迷你iPad等自己的低利潤產(chǎn)品予以反擊。

????雖然蘋果素來以守口如瓶著稱,但我們知道,它正在開發(fā)自己的幾款新產(chǎn)品——有些可能會形成一個全新的產(chǎn)品類別,比如傳聞中的智能手表iWatch。此外,蘋果還在投入時間開發(fā)一款新的電視產(chǎn)品。這樣的新產(chǎn)品可為蘋果提供新的增長領(lǐng)域——僅iWatch就可產(chǎn)生60億美元的營收,而且可把該公司的利潤率提升到再次給投資者留下深刻印象的水平。

????然而,目前投資者并不看好蘋果,相反卻強烈看好谷歌。上周,更多的分析師認(rèn)為谷歌股價將會上漲至1,000美元,他們認(rèn)為其他一些因素可能會在未來幾年內(nèi)推高谷歌股價。投資銀行杰富瑞公司(Jeffries & Co.)認(rèn)為,考慮到摩托羅拉手機業(yè)務(wù)的業(yè)績改善、YouTube等非搜索領(lǐng)域以及電子商務(wù)計劃,谷歌股價可能會上漲至四位數(shù)?;蛟S更令人鼓舞的消息是,移動廣告的點擊率正在持續(xù)攀升,杰富瑞公司(Jefferies)分析師布萊恩?皮茲如是寫道。

????蘋果和谷歌股票之間的這種運勢逆轉(zhuǎn)有多少合理的成分呢?實際情況或許并不是股票走勢圖可能展現(xiàn)出來的模樣。過去三年谷歌股票徘徊于600美元附近的大部分時間里,人們一直存在如下的猜測:首先,谷歌無法在以Facebook為代表的社會化媒體時代實現(xiàn)繁榮發(fā)展,之后人們對谷歌聯(lián)合創(chuàng)始人拉里?佩奇出任首席執(zhí)行官的表現(xiàn)沒有把握。對于投資者而言,佩奇實施的一系列大膽舉措直到現(xiàn)在才顯現(xiàn)出其預(yù)期效果。

????與此同時,蘋果已被投資者持續(xù)看漲多年,而且在iPhone和iPad的推動下,它的盈利增長表現(xiàn)強勁。這兩款產(chǎn)品經(jīng)過了多年的構(gòu)思、設(shè)計以及執(zhí)行,才形成我們?nèi)缃袼赖漠a(chǎn)品。對于蘋果,我們可以確定一件事,那就是它不會靜靜地坐在那里,數(shù)著自己積累起來的巨額現(xiàn)金。這家公司正在設(shè)法設(shè)計自創(chuàng)類別的新產(chǎn)品。真正的問題在于,這些產(chǎn)品是否會像iPad那樣,得到消費者的認(rèn)可和共鳴。

????In July 2012, the Presidential election was kicking into high gear, the Olympics were about to begin, and most people thought it was a matter of time before shares of Apple hit $1,000.

????Google (GOOG), meanwhile, was just muddling along. After doubling during 2009, its stock had been treading water around $600 a share for three and a half years. Apple (AAPL), too was trading around $600 a share, but the iPhone 5 was coming and the company Steve Jobs built seemed to have the wind at its back.

????Oh, how things have changed since then. Apple's stock has fallen 29% since mid-July. And Google? It's gained 46%, pushing past the $800 milestone while Apple languishes near $424 a share. Apple is tussling with investors over whether to pay more dividends, while Google rallies merrily on.

????There has been a lot of discussion over Apple's decline in recent months, and comparatively less about Google's corresponding rise. But the difference in between the two boils down to this: Apple is increasingly seen as coming off one of the greatest runs in the history of Silicon Valley. And Google may just be at the start of one.

????That is the new image of Google after two quarters of impressive earnings and more signs that the company is laying plans for long-term growth. "Looking at the consumer technology world over the next 10 to 20 years, we believe Google is far and away the best-positioned company," wrote Gene Munster, an influential tech analyst at Piper Jaffray.

????Munster pointed not to search or other advertising, which still accounts for 87% of the company's revenue, but to new ventures that have yet to hit the market, like Google Glass and self-driving cars, which he called one of Google's "biggest opportunities in the next 10 years."

????Compare that with Apple, which is seeing its share of the smartphone and tablet market erode over time as lower-margin, lower-cost Android rivals sell more products, and as Apple responds with its own lower-margin products like the iPad Mini.

????Although Apple infamously holds its cards close to its vest, it's working on its own new products -- some that could create an entirely new category like the rumored iWatch. Apple is also taking time to create a new TV device. Such new products could offer Apple new areas of growth -- the iWatch alone could produce $6 billion in revenue -- and beef up the company's profit margins to levels that would impress investors again.

????For now, however, sentiment is against Apple and strongly in favor of Google. This week, more analysts have joined the Google $1,000 club, citing other factors that could propel the stock higher in the coming year. Jeffries & Co. argued that a four-digit price is possible, given improvements in the Motorola handset business and non-search areas such as YouTube and commerce initiatives. Perhaps more encouraging, clickthrough rates on mobile ads are rising, Jeffries analyst Brian Pitz wrote.

????How deserved is this reversal of fortune between Apple and Google's stocks? Perhaps not as much as the stock charts might suggest. For much of the three years when Google was trading around $600 a share, it was subject to speculation that, first, it couldn't thrive in the era of Facebook (FB), and then later uncertainty around the new CEO Larry Page. The effectiveness of Page's bold steps are only now becoming apparent to investors.

????Apple, meanwhile, was riding a multi-year wave of bullishness and strong earnings growth that was driven by the iPhone and iPad. Those two products took years to conceive, design, and execute into the products we know. One thing that is certain about Apple -- it's not sitting quietly counting its pile of cash. It's trying to design new category-defining products. The real question is whether those products will resonate with consumers the way the iPad has.

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